India's China dynamic

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Donald Trump's lashing out at India risks trashing decades of careful diplomacy with New Delhi — and driving it closer to China.

The US president's attacks are motivated by his frustration over failing to end Russia's war in Ukraine. India offers an easy source of leverage: After Western nations imposed sanctions on Russian oil exports, India swooped in to buy its crude at a deep discount.

Never mind that India did this for years, with full US knowledge and consent. India says its actions are "a necessity" and has signaled it won't comply with Trump's demands.

The Bombay Stock Exchange building in Mumbai. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

India and China aren't likely to make friends overnight.

They clearly see each other as rivals, and relations have been sour since a series of border clashes in 2020. What's more, China supplied weapons and intelligence to Pakistan in its recent military dispute with India.

But there have been signs of a thaw, not least because India needs key inputs from China to develop its manufacturing base — a key goal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His government has loosened visa rules toward Chinese nationals, and Indian officials have recently conducted high-level visits to China.

Trump's threats to further ratchet up tariffs only make accommodation look more appealing. They follow a breakdown in trade-pact talks and Trump's growing friendliness with Pakistan's top general, Asim Munir.

The India-China dynamic is tentative, but it's just one indication of shifting international relations as the US antagonizes traditional allies. Canada is working more closely with Europe, Brazil is doubling down on the BRICS grouping, and South Africa is looking to build markets across the continent to substitute for lost American business.

Many Indian officials have long viewed Washington as a fickle friend anyway. While the two have enjoyed closer ties in recent years, the glue of the relationship is ultimately their shared rivalry with China.

If Trump casts India aside, New Delhi may see a rapprochement with China as the best alternative. — Dan Strumpf

Oil tanker trucks outside a refinery operated by Bharat Petroleum in Mumbai. Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

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