Pilbara under pressure, Turnbull podcast, house prices

Good morning, it's Paul-Alain coming to you from Melbourne. The ASX is set to open lower today, but first here's what you need to know to ge

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Good morning, it's Paul-Alain coming to you from Melbourne. The ASX is set to open lower today, but first here's what you need to know to get your day started…  Today's must-reads: • Australia's iron ore dilemma • National house prices rise  • Malcolm Turnbull podcast

What's happening now

The Pilbara iron ore region has underwritten Australian prosperity for decades and even helped Australia sidestep the GFC. But demand from biggest customer China, which uses our ore to make steel, is plateauing. The lack of demand growth along with falling ore grades and competition from elsewhere has exposed a new truth —  there's no clear successor for its economic heft.  Australian house prices climbed for a sixth straight month with every major city reporting gains, while signs of resurgent rents are set to stretch the budgets of those households even further. It's not good news for the government, which is trying to solve the complex housing crisis.  Now, even pricier. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg Since rockstar interviewer Mishal Husain joined Bloomberg earlier this year, she's grilled Elon Musk, Keir Starmer and a string of others. Now she's set her sights on Australia. In our latest podcast, Husain talks to former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull on US tariffs, China and the way forward for the AUKUS pact.  Listen and follow The Bloomberg Australia Podcast on Apple, Spotify, on YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Terminal clients: Run {NSUB AUPOD <GO>} on your desktop to subscribe. It's hard to see the tea leaves this earnings season amid global trade ructions and elevated valuations that are adding pressure to Australian companies. But even against that backdrop, shares of firms that deliver in-line results can still do well. Here's our look at the companies to keep an eye on.  The quarterly inflation numbers this week were close to the Reserve Bank's expectations, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser  said in a fireside chat in Sydney yesterday. Shortly after that, retail sales came in stronger than forecast, running counter to recent data that's supported the case for rate cuts. Our spy chief revealed that espionage cost the economy at least A$12.5 billion in fiscal 2024, as he sought to raise awareness about foreign efforts to steal information. And speaking of spies… the FBI has appointed a special agent in New Zealand.

What happened overnight

Here's what my colleague, market strategist Mike "Willo" Wilson says happened while we were sleeping… US stocks failed to hold onto a gain amid Trump's tariff deadline which saw a flurry of last minute deals, with the president also asking drug companies to lower their prices in America. The yen lost ground against other currencies following the Bank of Japan meeting and the dollar ended July at the month's high to arrest a six-month slide. The Aussie and kiwi currencies both ended the day lower. All eyes are now on tonight's US jobs data for further evidence of tariff resilience. Australia has some minor data out today, while New Zealand's consumer confidence showed a deterioration. Donald Trump unleashed a series of tariff deals and demands on the eve of today's deadline, including surprises on India and copper. But even as Trump keeps up his tariff threats, another dynamic is emerging: With far less fanfare, he's been letting plenty of companies and industries off the hook, often with no explanation. A money manager for some of Hong Kong's richest families is building a hedge fund team to allocate money away from private equity after its clients asked for more liquid investments. VMS Group, a multi-family office with about US$4 billion in assets under management, is making a strategic pivot.  Trump said special envoy Steve Witkoff would head to Russia after wrapping up a visit to Israel ahead of a new deadline for Moscow to halt its fight with Ukraine.  Trump also said he'd impose sanctions once a new deadline he set earlier this week expires, but did not foresee that it would alter Vladimir Putin's behavior.

What to watch

• Australia 2Q producer price data released at 11.30am in Sydney

One more thing...

It's a bird! It's a plane! No… it's another Hollywood rehash, as 2025's biggest movies return to familiar ground like Superman and Jurassic Park. Bloomberg Opinion's Gearoid Reidy says the industry's inability to move forward with new ideas is a function of business, particularly the frenetic pace of studio consolidation, which rewards a risk-adverse management approach that likes predictable ticket sales. New, but old. Photographer: VCG/Visual China Group

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