Friday’s jobs report looks grim

The US employment data released today is worrying. Bloomberg News' US economy reporter and editor Matthew Boesler writes that even the silver lining in the data may be cause for concern. Plus: AI comes to climate science, and seaside cycling is our path to peace. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up.

Note: The Sunday edition of Bw Reads was published on Friday by mistake. Enjoy the early read.

No one seems pleased with Friday's job report, particularly President Donald Trump: "I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY," he said on social media Friday, accusing the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, without evidence, of politicizing the report.

There was one piece of seemingly good news—an acceleration in health-care hiring—in the otherwise alarming report. Looking ahead, it probably represents even greater cause for concern.

Health care tends to be more immune to economic turmoil. If there's an aging population with Medicare access and abundant Medicaid support, there's always a customer to serve. Back in the early 1990s, in 2001 and during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, health-care employment increased while other industries shed jobs.

Without gains in health-care employment last month, the US wouldn't have added any jobs at all. Even more so, since the start of the pandemic health care has been a critical contributor to employment. During the past three years, the sector accounted for 43% of all new jobs, up from about 22% in the three years before the onset of Covid-19.

Most economists say the US isn't currently in a recession, but the jobs numbers over the past few months are starting to look like they're reprising the pattern of previous downturns. Excluding health-care and social assistance jobs, US employers shed 53,000 positions in May and 45,000 in June, revisions in Friday's report showed.

Dramatic policy changes from President Donald Trump's administration and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will likely put a greater strain on this bulwark of the US economy. The Republication legislation slashed Medicaid spending, which will severely test the ability of health care to play its usual countercyclical role if the economic slowdown continues.

We've already seen warning signs in the hottest industry of all over the past five years: mental health. It's facing a jolt in the wake of the administration's moves to revoke billions of dollars of funding from programs set up during the pandemic that led to a dramatic expansion in access to care. June marked the first month since 2021 in which the industry didn't add jobs, according to Friday's numbers.

The cuts to Medicaid are separate, and potentially an even bigger deal. While Medicare payments have expanded from less than 1% of gross domestic product in the 1960s to almost 4% of GDP in 2025—propelled by growth in the number of older Americans—Medicaid transfers have expanded almost just as much, to more than 3% of gross domestic product after the pandemic.

And while the impact of the Big Beautiful Bill has yet to show up in economic data, it may be coming. Even though the cuts aren't supposed to take effect until 2028, Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nia-Malika Henderson recently highlighted at least one example of a rural hospital in Nebraska that announced plans to close down in the coming months amid uncertainty over funding.

An ER nurse at the Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital. Photographer: Brandon Bell/Getty Images

Other data this week also suggested that health care won't maintain its momentum. The job openings rate in the sector fell to 5.5% in June, according to monthly BLS data. It's now fully returned to pre-pandemic levels after rising to as high as 9.4% in 2022.

It could be that employers across the economy will be ready to move forward with expansion plans again once Trump finishes inking trade deals, lifting some of the uncertainty that's been hanging over everything so far this year. At this point, the fate of the labor market may depend on it.

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The Weather's Awful—But Weather Science Is About to Get Better

Hurricane Erick spinning off the Pacific Coast of Mexico on June 18. Source: NOAA

Artificial intelligence is giving some climate research projects a much-needed boost at a time of worsening extreme weather and funding cuts that threaten science in the US and elsewhere.

While generative AI faces criticism due to the large amounts of power required to train and run sophisticated models, it also holds the promise of advancing science.

"It's a gigantic step forward," says Ángel Borja, a biologist at AZTI marine research center in northern Spain. "It will allow us to process data and get results much faster, so people that make decisions can act faster too."

At Green, Laura Millan and Yinka Ibukun write that climate scientists say AI could help them make a "gigantic step forward." Read more: AI Is Fast-Tracking Climate Research, From Weather Forecasts to Sardines

You Ought to Take a Spin by the Shore

The bike path at Dockweiler State Beach in El Segundo, California. Photographer: Christina House/Los Angeles Times

On a recent Sunday morning, I awoke jetlagged in Gdansk, a Polish seaport of 477,000 renowned for its Dutch architecture, amber trade and memorials commemorating the first shots fired of World War II.

My hotel offered a few bicycles for its guests, so I grabbed one and pedaled my way along the Old Town's cobblestone streets. I admired the towering Great Armory, constructed 400 years ago to repel a potential Swedish invasion, and passed the former Lenin Shipyard, birthplace of the Solidarity movement that toppled Polish communism in the 1980s. The apartment buildings surrounding me were gradually replaced by grassy dunes, and I soon slowed to a halt. Before me, the Baltic Sea shimmered in the morning sun.

After pausing to admire the view, I turned east, biking along a cycle track that ran parallel to the shoreline a few hundred feet away. The asphalt was smooth and flat; I passed families out for a gentle ride as well as Lycra-clad speedsters. Beachfront cafes beckoned with sandwiches and coffee. Within half an hour I reached the bustling resort town of Sopot. After sipping a cappuccino and exploring the Sopot Pier, I climbed on my bike and rode back to Gdansk. I'm not entirely sure whether a foolish grin was etched on my face, but it certainly felt like it.

David Zipper, writing for CityLab, wonders why oceanfront bicycle paths—which relieve beach traffic and mitigate the ill effects of overtourism—are so rare in the US. Read more: We Should All Be Biking Along the Beach

Harvard Deal

$500 million

That's how much Harvard University has agreed to pay to settle a legal fight with the Trump administration. But the White House views the payment as a floor in negotiations for a settlement, and the cost of a deal could climb far higher if the school doesn't submit to government oversight provisions.

AI Scheming

"People should probably be freaking out more than they are."

Kevin Troy

Anthropic safety evaluator

AI models are getting smarter and better at understanding what we want. Yet recent research reveals a disturbing side effect: They're also better at scheming against us.