| Here's a fun topic to think about on a summer Monday: The End of the World as We Know It! Predicting the possible collapse of the US-led order may sound daunting, but I assure you it's just a multiple-choice question where all three possible answers are bad: A) There's a major military catastrophe.
B) Soaring federal debt cripples growth.
C) Trump bulldozes through all the rules. These are the paths we have to choose from, Hal Brands says. So which will it be? First up, there's war. "Nothing ruptures the authority of a hegemonic power like a humiliating beatdown on the battlefield," Hal writes. "The Pentagon faces a vexing military arithmetic problem. Several challenges — from Russia in Europe, Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, and China and North Korea in Asia — are stretching US resources." Although Moscow has been weakened by the war in Ukraine, Beijing has spent the past few years rehearsing for a major showdown in Taiwan. "It is racing to construct a nuclear arsenal that will match, and maybe exceed, America's. Meanwhile, Xi Jinping's government is hoarding food, fuel and other resources." The US, meanwhile:  If not war, then economic calamity: "A quarter-century ago, the US had a budget surplus. Now, it's deficits without end. Publicly held US debt is around 100% of GDP. It will soon eclipse the 119% America reached at the close of World War II. And if the spending and taxation levels enshrined in Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill become permanent, debt could exceed 200% of GDP by 2050," Hal explains. I'm no economist, but the fact that we're spending as much money on weapons as we are servicing the debt can't be good: Then there's the third wildcard: The US stops caring about everything sacred and good! As Hal says, "Trump — beyond weakening US support for democracy and human rights overseas — has also behaved in ways that challenge that same vital norm." His whole side-quest to get Greenland is proof of that. Back to the multiple-choice question at the top, there is one answer I left out that's even scarier than the rest: D) All of the above. "History tells us that there are many ways in which orders unravel," says Hal. "A worrying marker of our current moment is that America is courting all of them at once." Read the whole thing for free. Bonus American Regression Reading: The Best You Could Get??? | Someday, somehow, we will stop talking about tariffs. But today, sadly, is not that day. Over the weekend in between rounds of "golf," President Trump struck a "deal" with the European Union: A 15% baseline tariff on Europe's goods, lowered from the recently threatened 30%, in return for what Lionel Laurent calls "an apparent smorgasbord of continental investments into the US and huge purchases of energy and military equipment." According to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, "it was the best we could get." The deal arrives on the heels of a similar pact with Japan, which John Authers says "drove a great day for stocks." Despite the investor hoopla, Tokyo-based writer Gearoid Reidy wasn't in the mood for celebrating: "Who is going to buy the 'cars, SUVs and trucks' that President Donald Trump has promised to sell? Who is going to purchase the 100 Boeing jets? And what possible structure could the $550 billion fund, allegedly financed by Tokyo with 90% of profits going to US, actually take?" he asks. Indeed, a lot of questions are open-ended, especially for the global auto market. "Even if Tokyo gave everyone a Ford F-150 pickup, its 2.4-meter width would prevent two from passing on narrow streets. Hence cute minivans and kei-cars dominate while, as my colleague Liam Denning said this week, "US automakers do not, in general, make an adorable little anything," Gearoid writes. The view from Detroit isn't much clearer, argues Liam in a column about the EU trade deal. "As with the Japan deal," he writes, "the relevance of the EU deal to the US automakers centers more on signaling than opening up a new market. Having largely retreated to the business of making heavier gas-guzzlers to serve American tastes, Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Co. may yet make some inroads in Europe with electric vehicles." Let's just hope that doesn't involve turning the Eiffel Tower into this AI-generated monstrosity: | 
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