Running out of patience

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The first direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in three years get under way today. There's little optimism for a breakthrough that could end the war.

The two sides are bringing different agendas to the meeting in Istanbul.

President Vladimir Putin sent a delegation headed by an aide who led Russia's team at the last direct talks, also in Istanbul, in 2022, soon after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Then, the Kremlin said Ukraine accepted a draft protocol of Russian demands for halting the war, something Kyiv disputes.

The message was clear — Putin wants to resume talks where they broke off.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's team is led by his defense minister and dominated by military officials. Its mandate is to seek a ceasefire to create space for peace negotiations.

Putin has so far rejected US and European calls for a 30-day truce. Russian forces currently have the upper hand on the battlefield.

While Zelenskiy challenged Putin to meet him in Turkey, the Russian leader never indicated that he'd join the negotiations.

President Donald Trump, who's concluding a Middle East tour today, summed up the US judgment on the peace talks, telling reporters "nothing's going to happen until Putin and I get together."

WATCH: Despite years of sanctions for annexing Crimea and a later full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia's economy has shown resilience.

The Kremlin also believes a meeting between Putin and Trump is essential to reach a deal to end the war.

Yet neither side is making a concrete proposal for a summit. Trump said today he would meet Putin "as soon as we can set it up."

Today's talks may kickstart a process that ultimately leads to an accord. It may as easily break down in mutual recriminations.

The Trump administration has said the clock is ticking down on its patience in engaging in diplomacy for a deal.

A failure in Istanbul may become a catalyst for the US to walk away.

That may be the most crucial issue at stake in the negotiations. — Tony Halpin

WATCH: Putin appointed aide Vladimir Medinsky to lead the Russian delegation at talks with Ukraine in Turkey. Tony Halpin reports from Antalya.

Global Must Reads

The White House said Trump secured $200 billion in deals during his visit to the United Arab Emirates, including agreements involving artificial intelligence that will boost the Gulf nation's technological ambitions. The head of the $524 billion Qatar Investment Authority told us the state-backed fund plans to invest an amount nearly equal to its current size in the US over the next decade in areas like AI, data centers and healthcare.

WATCH: Bloomberg TV's Annmarie Hordern discusses Trump's visit to Abu Dhabi and the various deals struck between the US and the UAE.

Trump's flurry of AI agreements during his Middle East swing is opening a rift within his own administration as China hawks grow increasingly concerned the projects are putting US national security and economic interests at risk, sources say. Some senior administration officials are seeking to slow down the deals over concerns the US hasn't imposed sufficient guardrails to prevent American chips shipped to the Gulf from ultimately benefiting China, which has deep ties in the region.

Trump's meeting with Syrian leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Riyadh and his push to ease sanctions on the country was seen as a highlight of his trip to the Arabian peninsula this week. But actual implementation of the move will be a protracted and thorny challenge, and the White House made clear Sharaa must take steps in return, including helping to fight terrorism and agreeing on ties with Israel.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's plan to reset the UK's relationship with the European Union has been met with challenges, particularly on immigration and defense. While Britain and Europe are friends again in a world thrown into turmoil, the at-times-fraught path to next week's UK-EU summit shows it will take more than that to make old feuds disappear.

Romania's track record as a reliable supporter of the European project will be put to the test on Sunday as an ultranationalist Trump disciple contends for the presidency against a one-time math prodigy. While George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, secured a commanding victory in a first-round ballot on May 4, polls show he's headed into a tight runoff against Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan, an independent who has pledged a more centrist course for the Black Sea nation.

A ceasefire between Pakistan and India will be extended until Sunday, according to a top official in Islamabad, indicating the respite in fighting is holding after clashes this month over the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir brought the two nuclear-armed nations close to a full-blown war.

Indian soldiers in Kashmir yesterday. Photographer: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP/Getty Images

Japan's economy was shrinking even before the bulk of Trump's tariffs took effect, data showed today, leaving the economy at risk of sliding into recession as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba heads into an election.

Taiwan will shut its last nuclear reactor tomorrow, the culmination of a phaseout strategy that threatens its energy-guzzling chip industry and its security as tensions rise with China.

While some of Europe's biggest economies have grown increasingly wary of Chinese investments, in Portugal the two political parties vying to lead the government are rolling out the welcome mat.

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Chart of the Day

Trump's tariffs on China will likely remain at a level expected to severely curtail its exports to the US after a 90-day truce, according to analysts and investors, suggesting Beijing may have to endure further economic pain despite active talks. US levies on Chinese products imposed this year will likely hold at 30% through late 2025, a Bloomberg survey showed.

And Finally

At a school in Alexandra, an impoverished Johannesburg township, Black teenage boys and girls toss a rugby ball around on a patch of concrete. It's a scene that would have been unimaginable 30 years ago, when South Africa was emerging from decades of apartheid and the national rugby team, the Springboks, was seen as a symbol of white Afrikaner supremacism. Then Nelson Mandela donned the Springboks jersey and celebrated with the team after it won the 1995 Rugby World Cup at Johannesburg's Ellis Park stadium, marking a turning point for the divided nation and the sport South Africa now dominates.

Mandela congratulates Springboks captain François Pienaar after the rugby World Cup final in 1995. Photographer: Jean-Pierre Muller/Getty Images

Pop Quiz (no cheating!). A former prominent banking CEO stepped down as the head of which African country's main opposition party, only to be reelected as its leader days later? Send your answers to: [email protected]