A contest for influence

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In the history of Catholicism, there has never been an American pope. The religious institution goes back more than two millennia, while the independent US is less than 250 years old.

The death of Pope Francis will trigger upheaval in the relationship between these two worlds.

A photo of Pope Francis is displayed at the New York Stock Exchange yesterday. Photographer: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

It could go one of two ways: a conservative cardinal prevails in the succession battle, or a David-versus-Goliath-style ensues if the city-state picks a progressive successor to Francis.

Under Donald Trump, religion and policy have become unapologetically intertwined. He played a key role in reshaping the Supreme Court along socially conservative lines, which subsequently saw women's rights to abortion curtailed.

Given Trump's radical shake-up of the post-World War II order, who the next pontiff is potentially matters even more. As spiritual leader of about 1.4 billion followers, the pope has serious global clout that can either work in alignment with Trump or against him. And it wasn't that long ago when popes were absolute monarchs carving up spheres of influence.

Vice President JD Vance was one of the last people to see God's Roman Catholic representative on Earth alive, bringing with him the zeal of the newly converted. It hardly mattered if theirs wasn't a meeting of minds.

He could disagree with Francis while loving the Latin ritual of a High Mass, in the same way that a combative Trump gushed at an audience with Queen Elizabeth II. The Argentina-born pope was a critic of US immigration policy while not exactly a liberal.

Trump, like other leaders, will go to Rome for the funeral. It will be a show of respect, no doubt, but also a way to endorse a US contender for the conclave to select the next pontiff.

The gathering, over the centuries, has evolved to try and prevent outside meddling, but politics has always found a way to seep in. — Flavia Krause-Jackson

Pope Francis meets with Vance in Vatican City on Sunday. Source: Vatican Pool/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The White House said talks in New Delhi yesterday between Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi yielded "significant progress" toward a bilateral trade agreement, and that the two nations had finalized a roadmap for a deal to reduce the tariff burden. The pair also discussed cooperation in defense, critical technologies and energy, according to the premier's office.

As nations continue efforts to seal trade deals with the Trump administration, China warned countries against agreements that could hurt Beijing's interests, saying it "will resolutely take reciprocal countermeasures." Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said there's no accord yet with her US counterpart after the two spoke last week about lifting tariffs, while Thailand announced that ministerial level talks scheduled for this week have been delayed. South Korea and Washington will kick off trade negotiations this week.

Workers at a garment workshop at Tangbudong Village in Guangzhou, China, on April 7. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

South Korea's presidential-election front-runner vowed to lift corporate governance standards and curb malpractices such as stock manipulation to boost the allure of the nation's $1.6 trillion stock market. A gauge of Lee Jae-myung's popularity rose to a record last week, widening the gap with potential candidates from the ruling party ahead of the June 3 presidential election.

Washington makes a turbulent backdrop for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, with market turmoil and fears of a US recession calling into question American economic and security leadership. Trade will be top of mind during the gatherings, which start today, and many countries may use the opportunity to pursue talks with Trump's administration.

Attendees during the IMF and World Bank Spring meetings at the IMF headquarters in Washington yesterday. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg

The US will meet with Ukrainian and European officials in London tomorrow as Trump pushes for a deal to halt Russia's war on Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are expected to meet with top officials from France, Germany, the UK and Ukraine, sources say, while Trump told reporters that "there's a very good chance" of a deal this week.

Nicolás Maduro formally rejected Nayib Bukele's proposal to exchange the hundreds of Venezuelans held in a notorious prison in El Salvador for the same number of political prisoners.

South Sudan is sending a delegation to Washington to discuss the return of 137 nationals whom the US has ordered to be deported.

South Africa's Democratic Alliance party began a court challenge to stop a proposed tax increase — a case that's threatened to fracture the coalition government.

Canadian Liberal Party Leader Mark Carney wants to make the government both a customer and financier of the prefabricated housing industry in an effort to lower home prices, while creating manufacturing jobs that could replace some of the ones being lost due to US tariffs.

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Chart of the Day

Gold extended a blistering rally to rise above $3,500 an ounce for the first time, as concern that Trump could fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell triggered a flight from US stocks, bonds and the dollar. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, a move seen as a threat to the central bank's independence. Combined with his trade war, it's helped make the dollar and US Treasury bonds, traditional havens at times of stress, suddenly look much less appealing.

And Finally

Victor Espinosa has a small model of Javier Milei wielding a chainsaw on his desk and a plan for Chile that's every bit as radical as the Argentine president's libertarian policies. The economic adviser to Chilean presidential candidate Johannes Kaiser says he'd push the budget into surplus, cut corporate taxes, introduce a voucher system for education and privatize the world's biggest copper company and every other state company. Still, he and Kaiser face one big problem: Chile isn't like Argentina, where Milei convinced voters that only radical change could end decades of economic chaos.

The Codelco Chuquicamata open-pit copper mine near Calama, Chile. Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 25 people who answered Thursday's quiz, and congratulations to Marc Weinberg, who was first to correctly identify Brazil as the country that granted political asylum to Peru's former first lady after she was sentenced to 15 years in prison for laundering campaign contributions.