RBA set to cut rates, Trump prepares to meet Putin

Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to kick off your working week.Today's must-reads:• RBA eyes thir

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Good morning and welcome back, it's Ainsley here with all the news you need to kick off your working week. Today's must-reads: • RBA eyes third rate cut of 2025 • Albanese, Luxon meet in Queenstown • Trump prepares to meet Putin on Friday

What's happening now

The RBA is poised to deliver its third interest-rate cut this year as inflationary pressures ebb, while Governor Michele Bullock is expected to stick with her cautious stance on the monetary policy outlook. Traders and most economists polled by Bloomberg anticipate the Reserve Bank will lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.6% on Tuesday, bringing its cumulative easing in the current cycle to 75 basis points. Australia and New Zealand pledged to bolster defense and trading ties as their leaders said the two nations are navigating through the most "unpredictable and dangerous strategic environment in decades." The countries will continue moves to improve interoperability of their armed forces and pursue combined procurement, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and New Zealand leader Christopher Luxon said Saturday in a joint statement. The two leaders, who met in Queenstown, also said Israel risks violating international law by taking control of Gaza City and should reconsider its plan. "We urge the Israeli government to reconsider before it is too late," they said in the statement. There's a comforting story that oil bulls like to tell themselves to stave off worries about the future, writes David Fickling for Bloomberg Opinion. While the privileged few in Europe and California might have lost their minds over electric vehicles, billions of drivers in the Global South are readying themselves to provide the next wave of petroleum demand. Those who believe this might want to have a look at the cars and two-wheelers that people are actually buying right now. Far from trailing the rich world in their enthusiasm for battery cars, developing nations are surging ahead.

What happened overnight

Here's what my colleague, market strategist Mike "Willo" Wilson says happened while we were sleeping… US stocks closed out the week higher led by tech companies. A gauge of the dollar arrested a five-day slide, while the Aussie and Kiwi held steady to post weekly gains. Offshore risks this week include US inflation data on Tuesday, the same day that nation's trade truce with China expires. On Friday, Donald Trump is planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the US president looks to broker a ceasefire agreement to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. Locally, all 37 economists expect the RBA to cut interest rates 25 basis points to 3.6% on Tuesday with Australian jobs data on Thursday. NZ manufacturing PMI rounds out the week domestically. ASX futures indicate a quiet open for Australian equities. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said this week's US-Russian summit may open the door to negotiations about Ukrainian territory, even as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has continued to reject ceding land occupied by Russia. Bridging the gap between Zelenskiy's stance and Russian President Vladimir Putin's demands on locking in gains in eastern Ukraine is among the most sensitive points as President Donald Trump prepares to meet Putin in Alaska on Friday. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte Photographer: Lina Selg/Bloomberg Palantir's meteoric rise is pushing the company's valuation further into record territory, forcing bullish investors to bank on increasingly robust future growth to justify its current level. Shares of the defense maker closed at another all-time high Friday, bringing gains since its 2021 debut to near 2,500%.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended his plan for a military sweep against the final Hamas strongholds in Gaza, calling it the best available option for recovering hostages while safeguarding his country's long-term security — an argument that's met vocal opposition at home and abroad.  Battery giant CATL has suspended production at a major lithium mine in China's Jiangxi province for at least three months, according to people familiar with the matter. One of the people said the suspension came after the company failed to extend a key mining permit which expired on Aug. 9.

What to watch

• Earnings include Car Group, Iress, JB Hi-Fi

One more thing...

The thing about trading stocks is everyone has an opinion. And right now there's an unusual divergence in the market that's as stark as man versus machine. Computer-guided traders haven't been this bullish on stocks compared to their human counterparts since early 2020, before the depths of the Covid pandemic, according to Parag Thatte, a strategist at Deutsche Bank.

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