The Brits are down bad

So long, London?
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Today's Agenda

The Vibes in Britain Are Off

Is the UK okay? I know headlines don't tell the whole story, but this trio of columns we published is making me worry:

Like, just look the measly stub at the end of this housing chart:

To say that Matthew Brooker is losing his cool would be an understatement: "The capital is on track to deliver less than 5% of its annual target of 88,000 homes with half the year gone, by far the worst performance in two decades," he writes. "Such a collapse in the UK's largest and richest city would be a poor omen for economic growth and productivity at the best of times. For this to be occurring under a one-year-old Labour government that arrived in office promising a generational uplift in housing supply is extraordinary."

Of course, that one-year-old Labour government also promised to fix the immigration crisis, which hasn't worked out so well, judging by this chart from Bloomberg News:

You'd think that more people would lead to more economic activity, and yet Andrea Felsted and Marcus Ashworth warn that the tea leaves for winter spending look ugly — "unwelcome news for Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves because consumers contribute three-fifths of gross domestic product."

Beyond the economic numbers, "there is an ominous sense in the air in Britain — a sense that the country is headed toward the rocks and that the captain has no idea how to steer the ship," writes Adrian Wooldridge. "The last fortnight has seen a couple of tense street protests — in Epping and Canary Wharf. In both cases, locals protested the government's decision to take over local hotels and fill them with young male asylum seekers," evidence of the country's fraying social fabric.

Although Adrian is confident the UK can avoid a true crisis, he says "a major shock cannot be ruled out. The most serious worry is that the barriers that protect us from either a debt contagion or a social conflagration have been eroded."

Bonus British Panic Reading: US buyers have been coming for the UK's top companies, and now they are coming for its bankers. — Chris Hughes

Oh Baby

If I could buy a monthly subscription to never hear about Elon Musk's offspring ever again, I'd sign up immediately. But, to my knowledge, such a service does not yet exist. And so we must discuss his … shall we say, penchant for procreation

At the time of writing, the Tesla billionaire has fathered 14 children — each one a step closer to achieving his lifelong goal of repopulating the planet. "Maybe it's an alpha-male thing — and not something most of us would see as exemplary fatherhood, judging by reports of how Musk treats the mothers of his infant 'legion,'" writes Lionel Laurent.

It seems many of the uber-rich are also on the quest to have more kids: "A study of the 948 wealthiest Americans by economist Ria Wilken published in January calculated an average of 2.99 children," he writes. "Billionaires do skew male overall and do a fair bit of re-marrying, so this can't be directly compared with the national (female) fertility rate. Still, 2.99 is higher than the 1.94 average children per family recorded in US census data. Most Americans (71%) have had two children or fewer, according to last year's General Social Survey."

"So why, then, do some of the wealthiest people on the planet seem to equate status with having more, not fewer, children?" he asks. The most obvious answer may be the best one: They have truckloads of money! And the more money you have, the easier it is to have as many kids as you want.

In the US, the tab for raising a child into adulthood is over three hundred grand. If we want people to have more babies, Lionel argues we need to increase "access to the kind of infrastructure, housing and work flexibility that the wealthy have in abundance."

Telltale Charts

Serious question: Has the Conspiracy Theory Factory run out of things to fabricate? Because Justin Fox says they're now spinning stories about payroll data. Let's be real: Most people — not those of you reading this Bloomberg newsletter, of course — would rather waste their braincells watching a blade of grass sprout from the ground than dig into mind-numbing employment statistics. Yet Justin says there's a bunch of chatter online about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics is cooking the books. Spoiler alert: They're not! Justin says the BLS is just hyper-vigilant about updating its precious Excel spreadsheet to make the numbers as accurate as possible. That's basic data hygiene if you ask me, but, as Justin says, "the many revisions paradoxically lead to much more public skepticism about the accuracy of these statistics." Ugh.

I saved the scariest, most dread-inducing topic for last today: Andreas Kluth says his nuclear expert buddies — plural — in Washington are completely at their wits end about the prospect of nuclear war. "The danger today may not be as acute as it was during the Cuban Missile Crisis. But it is much more diffuse, complicated and unpredictable than it has ever been. And while those in the know can summarize how we got to this point, nobody, as far as I know, has any good ideas about where to go from here," he writes. It gives me no pleasure to follow that with this quote from Hal Brands: "Trump is barreling toward a bad bargain with Beijing. He's weakening the US position in the fight for global primacy. And he's using his dominance of the Republican Party to mute opposition to this dangerous course." Beyond bleak.

Further Reading

The US will be the biggest loser from Trump's trade "wins." — Bloomberg's editorial board

The UK says it will recognize Palestine. That gives needless and risky leverage to Hamas. — Marc Champion

China and the US are heading in vastly different directions on AI. — Catherine Thorbecke

The loss of gender-affirming care shows how easily this White House can target health practices. — Lisa Jarvis

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin wants to burn $87 trillion to save $1 trillion. — Mark Gongloff

On trade, the US appears to be more interested in displays of submission than messy details. — Daniel Moss

Homelessness is a disgrace. And it's a resources problem, not a partisan problem. — Erika D. Smith

ICYMI

Copper's big comedown.

Harris rules out CA governorship.

The DC plane crash hearing.

Kickers

Let's ban more nonexistent things!

What in the Theranos is this???

Cowboy boots made out of a Chili's booth! Obsessed.

Biiiig drama over at the High Noon/Celsius factory.

Notes: Please send Tecovas x Chili's boots and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected].

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