Nobody wants to pay for the barbecue

Red meat costs too much.
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Today's Agenda

Too Busy to BBQ? Or Just Too Broke?

What are your top three non-negotiables for a successful barbecue? For me, it's simple: There's gotta be a ton of food, good company and yard games. Adam Minter is partial to cornhole: See his latest column on the summer's it-sport — but bocce, badminton or ladder golf are fun, too. For the menu, nothing beats beer can chicken — I've been meaning to try this Michelada-style one from Sara Tane that looks unreal — but any grilled meat will do.

As for the company, that's the easy part! Or it should be, yet my generation has a tendency to treat social gatherings like the plague. Derek Thompson recently opined on why young Americans are spending 70% less time hanging out than they did at the beginning of the 21st century. His theory is that we're all so glued to our screens and busy at work that there's no time to plan potluck dinners or Scrabble nights. An even simpler answer might be that it costs too much money to throw a party.

Case in point? This chart from Javier Blas. Those burgers my dad used to toss on the grill in the early aughts? They're now 200% more expensive. Same goes for chicken:

"The problem is supply," Javier explains. "Put simply, the world is running out of calves. In the US, the size of the cattle herd hit a 74-year low last year ... With fewer animals making it into slaughterhouses, the market's invisible hand is rationing supply."

Behind the sticker shock is a host of challenges. Javier says farmers face "rising energy prices, higher interest rates and labor shortages that have boosted salaries. In many regions, farms are closing due to a lack of generational successors."

Contrary to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins' delusional goal of achieving a "100% American" farm workforce, not many citizens want to pick berries for a living. Instead, Justin Fox says it's seasonal workers who do the heavy lifting:

"Few Americans want to labor on farms because this is an affluent, urbanized (suburbanized, really) nation with ample less-grueling work on offer," Justin writes. "If government policy really were to shift to zero tolerance for not just undocumented immigrants but all noncitizens on US farms — which is what Rollins seemed to say — the short- and possibly longer-term outcome would be the collapse of American agricultural production."

In the event of such a collapse, the cost of a barbecue feast — the hot dogs, the corn on the cob, the potato salad — would surely be higher. And don't even get me started on the dessert.

Bonus Seasonal Worker Reading: Trump's militarized mass deportation is an attack on America's social safety net. — Ronald Brownstein

Boys and Gals Are Divided

Speaking of parties:

For the sake of your mental health, I hope that you did not spend your weekend debating the merits of the Epstein investigation. If you did, the above post should make some sense to you. If you didn't, I salute your ability to stay offline in these trying times! You're free to continue living in ignorant bliss, or Tim O'Brien can catch you up.

The basic gist is this: Last week, the FBI and the DOJ released a memo debunking a MAGA conspiracy theory that stated Epstein was murdered in his cell because he had a secret list of clients he'd use to manipulate government officials. Among Trump's base, Tim says "the memo landed like the Covid-19 vaccine … They wanted no part of it and instead called for Attorney General Pam Bondi's resignation."

Need I remind you, President Donald Trump has spent the past eight-plus years of his life acting as a megaphone for fringe narratives. And now it's all backfiring: "When no one knows which conspiracy theory to believe, and you partake in a movement animated by conspiracies about science, education, the economy, the weather, the government, the world and reality, two things tend to happen: fault lines develop within the cult and then its members start turning on one another," Tim writes.

Elon Musk, one of the more notable members of that cult, has had enough. "Just release the files as promised," the Tesla CEO posted on X. Nia-Malika Henderson says Musk wants to start a new political party, yet there's just one problem: "A third party kind of already exists. It's called the Republican Party under Trump, otherwise known as MAGA … He hijacked the GOP and remade it in his own image with ideas from both parties."

Trump tried to rally his "boys" and "gals" with that "we're on one Team, MAGA" spiel, but the MAGAsphere is still fracturing. "If the infighting continues amid an economy threatened by cartwheeling tariff policies, Trump may have to learn the lessons of courting conspiracy — and political whirlwinds," Tim concludes. Read the whole thing for free.

Bonus Can't-Be-Trusted Reading:

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Telltale Charts

What's it like over at the Federal Reserve? Is it last day of school vibes, with people telling Jerome Powell HAGS because there's a chance he won't return tomorrow? Or is it more hush-hush, with everyone walking on eggshells since it seems like the big boss is one breath away from getting the boot? According to John Authers, it's neither, because Powell's job is actually far more secure than pundits are making it out to be. "The financial markets, and even the prediction markets, still find this a remote possibility," he writes. As Jonathan Levin says, "America's central bank was built to prevent such a coup from the executive branch." There's a lot of outside hurdles — hearings to measure a candidate's integrity, Senate approvals, the 12 voting members of the FOMC — that Trump will need to pass before Powell makes his grand exit.

Elsewhere in uncertain exits: Is AstraZeneca really going to say goodbye to London town? Chris Hughes says the British pharmaceutical giant is toying with a big move across the pond. If the listing switch goes through, Chris says it will be a "symbolic blow for the UK." AstraZeneca — perhaps most famous for producing a Covid vaccine with Oxford University — is the top dog in terms of market value on the London Stock Exchange. An exit to New York could kickstart a pilgrimage of other notable stocks. Poor optics aside, Chris argues it could be a strategic move: "Having US-listed stock would make it easier to raise cash," he explains. "The US has a stronger 'equity culture' than the UK." Afternoon tea, on the other hand ...

Further Reading

Free read: Trump finally got under Putin's skin. — Andreas Kluth

To make Putin end the war, send Russia's frozen assets to Ukraine. — Marc Champion

Northern Ireland's July marching season is a reminder. — Rosa Prince

Enjoy Meta's free AI while it lasts. — Parmy Olson

UK home prices aren't a cartel scam. — Matthew Brooker

The right-wing party taking Japan by storm is no MAGA. — Gearoid Reidy

Another moon landing will take more than rocket science. — F.D. Flam

The big loser from the GOP budget bill? Innovation. — Gautam Mukunda

Xi wants to end China's price wars. But how? — Shuli Ren

Copper tariffs won't revive US manufacturing. — Matthew Yglesias

ICYMI

A fatal fire at an assisted-living facility in Massachusetts.

Bill Pulte's social media posts are market-movers.

The Kraft-Heinz breakup would split ketchup from hot dogs.

Saudi Arabia wants to review its plan to build The Line.

China's biotech advance could change the drug pipeline.

Kickers

You're not imagining New York City's firefly surge.

We can stop talking about Love Island for now.

Couples honeymoon with family and friends.

In Chicago, the customer isn't always right.

The boy who lived is back on his broom.

Notes: Please send burgers and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected].

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