| Bloomberg Evening Briefing Americas |
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| When it comes to trade and deficits, today was not a great day for the US economic outlook. First there was new data showing the number of shipping containers carrying US imports fell for a second straight month, setting the stage for one of the sharpest year-on-year reversals on record thanks to President Donald Trump's trade war. Veteran industry analyst John McCown, writing in a monthly report based on the 10 largest US ports, said that inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before. Similar declines during the global financial crisis and the pandemic were short-term slumps. In this case, however, he estimated that a 25% reduction in US container volumes is "readily possible" and would translate "directly into a $510 billion reduction in annual commerce for the US." Also on Monday came confirmation from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office that—as economists had warned—the Republican tax and spend bill signed by Trump on July 4 will add $3.4 trillion to US deficits over a decade and leave millions without medical coverage. Trump, who has repeatedly promised he would not touch Medicaid, pushed his party to pass a bill that will deprive 10 million Americans of health care by 2034, the report said. The effective reduction in coverage is to pay for, among other things, the renewal of 2017 GOP tax cuts Trump signed into law that largely benefit the wealthy and corporations. Fearing losses in next year's midterms due to the unpopular bill, Republicans pushed the effective date of the Medicaid provisions until after the 2026 elections. And that's not all they're doing to prepare for that critical vote. —Natasha Solo-Lyons and David E. Rovella | |
What You Need to Know Today | |
| The paranoia is growing on Wall Street. Citigroup is now asking its new class of investment-banking analysts to disclose whether they've already accepted a job offer from another firm, becoming the latest institution to try and clamp down on aggressive recruitment by private equity firms. First-year analysts will be required to complete an "attestation" intended to "foster a fair and transparent environment," according to a memo sent to analysts' managers on Monday and seen by Bloomberg News. The attestation is expected to be a one-time form, but the bank might also ask analysts to repeat it annually. JPMorgan has said it will fire any analysts who accept outside job offers within 18 months of joining the firm, and Goldman Sachs will be asking its new analysts to confirm every three months whether they've taken outside offers. But Goldman has gone a step further, leveraging its own private markets arm as a sweetener to investment-banking analysts thinking of leaving. It plans to offer a select group of interns the guarantee of a move to its asset- and wealth-management division after two years of work in its investment-banking business, according to a memo last week. | |
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| Israel warned it would move for the first time into a town in the heart of the largely destroyed Gaza Strip that it had earlier skirted. The Israeli Defense Forces on Sunday told Palestinians in parts of Deir al-Balah to immediately move southward to a tent city for hundreds of thousands of people displaced by 21 months of fighting.  Palestinians carry the dead and wounded from a gathering point to collect food in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, on July 20. Photographer: Ahmad Salem/Bloomberg The warning comes after Gaza saw what the Associated Press described as the deadliest day so far for aid-seekers in the war. At least 85 Palestinians were killed by Israeli soldiers while trying to reach food on Sunday, the territory's Hamas-run Health Ministry said. A United Nations official reportedly told the AP that Israeli forces opened fire toward crowds who tried to take food from the convoy. The IDF has challenged reports of casualties around food centers, saying it has shot at people who posed a threat. | |
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| The oil market is deceptively calm, Javier Blas writes for Bloomberg Opinion. Below the apparent tranquility lies an under-appreciated transformation that has slowly reshaped the market over the last 25 years—because the arrival of China and India as big consumers hasn't just given an enormous boost to demand, it's also altered the market's seasonality. And that matters a lot this year. | |
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| Microsoft warned that hackers are actively targeting customers of its document management software SharePoint, with security researchers flagging the risk of potentially widespread breaches around the world. Vulnerabilities in the software have allowed hackers to access file systems and execute code, according to the Trump administration. Microsoft, which has been in the news lately for firing thousands of its workers, said over the weekend that it had released a new patch for customers to apply to their SharePoint servers "to mitigate active attacks targeting on-premises servers." But the company added it was still working to roll out others to address ongoing security flaws. | |
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| The news for Argentina's Javier Milei was pretty poor on Monday, too. The South American nation's economy contracted in May for the third time this year as previous wage declines and rising unemployment likely put pressure on consumer spending. Economic activity fell 0.1% from April, below economists' projections for growth of the same scale, while April's positive figure was revised down slightly. The drop in May activity aligns with a consumer spending setback in recent months as wages adjusted for inflation fell into negative territory earlier in the year. Unemployment in the first quarter reached its highest level in nearly four years. | |
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What You'll Need to Know Tomorrow | |
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