Can JPMorgan’s Gilded Age last forever?

Challenges lie ahead for Jamie Dimon.
View in browser
Bloomberg

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the undeniable business acumen of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

J.P. Morgan Would Be Pleased, No?

The genius of HBO's The Gilded Age is that while it is a low-stakes historical drama, portions of the plot are, indeed, based on actual history. So you get a steady drip of fun facts, like: a female engineer was critical in building the Brooklyn Bridge; New York's elite waged opera wars between the Met and the Academy of Music; alarm clocks — yes, alarm clocks — were once a golden ticket to upward mobility. And so on.

Even the railroad tycoons and cosmopolitan heiresses in the soap opera are loosely based on real-life figures. Which brings me to the cigar-smoking, signet-ring-wearing, mustachioed robber baron we're introduced to in Season 3:

Source: Karolina Wojtasik/HBO

Perhaps you recognize him? J.P. Morgan was one of the most influential, ruthless financiers of the Gilded Age, hence why his character (played by Bill Camp) has a linchpin role in the latest plot. He's called on by George Russell — the show's Vanderbilt-esque leading man — who is seeking investors for his greatest project yet: A railroad to connect New York, Chicago and LA.

Although viewers don't know how Russell's business venture will fare — things aren't looking pretty, judging by this trailer — I can confidently say that Morgan's namesake moneymaker is doing just peachy 140 years later. Valued at north of $800 billion, JPMorgan is now worth more than three of its largest competitors — Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — combined.

That skyrocketing blue line would please the late Mr. Morgan, no? Well, not exactly: Paul J. Davies says the bank's dominance creates a number of headaches for Wall Street wunderkind Jamie Dimon. "To find growth that doesn't make the bank more of a risk to itself and the economy it inhabits, it has to be very well run. But its immediate problem is an extremely high stock valuation and billions of dollars of excess capital – both of which threaten its returns if mishandled," he says.

Dimon, it seems, has been too pragmatic, too adaptive and too patient for his own good. Paul explains: "JPMorgan has roughly $60 billion of equity capital more than it needs to meet regulatory requirements. It is expected to spend about one-quarter of that on share buybacks over the rest of this year … Sounds great, but there's a problem: Its shares are so highly valued that this is a bad trade for the bank. The current price is 2.4 times the book value per share that JPMorgan reported for the second quarter – buying those shares for investors means paying them more than double the current net asset value of the company they own."

That sounds like a pickle straight out of The Gilded Age! Read the whole thing.

How Do You Solve a Problem Like Marc Andreessen?

One could argue that venture capitalist Marc Andreessen is 2025's version of J.P. Morgan. Similar to how the banker backed railroads, steel mills and electricity outposts, Andreessen has bet big on emerging technologies — the internet, software, crypto and AI — to much success. But beyond their undeniable business acumen, the similarities stop there. While Morgan was a careful member of the old-school elite, Andreessen "was reared in a tiny Wisconsin town by parents of modest means," explains Ron Brownstein. He has made a name for himself — like many a columnist in this very newsletter — by being quite opinionated:

This isn't a bad thing, on the face of it! But some of those more controversial opinions can cause quite a stir. Like, say, believing that racial diversity programs in higher education are complete and total bogus and they hurt native-born, working-class White people, an idea Andreessen reportedly floated in a private group chat with White House officials and technology leaders. While Ron sees merits in Andreessen's argument — it is getting harder for White kids from poor means to rise without access to higher education — he feels his ire toward DEI programs is misdirected.

"The reality is that Black and Hispanic kids, the putative beneficiaries of diversity programs, remain woefully underrepresented at the most selective institutions," explains Ron. "By blaming diversity programs, he's literally whitewashing the implications of an economic agenda that prioritizes huge tax cuts for people like him over investments that could help more people transcend their modest beginnings as he has."

The billionaire's diatribe arrives at a rather awkward time. Last week, a16z, the VC firm he co-founded, helped Substack raise $100 million in a funding round at a $1.1 billion valuation. Marc Rubinstein says the humble newsletter service's "growth metrics are certainly impressive," but he's skeptical whether the company can generate revenue on par with other information networks like Reddit and YouTube.

Andreessen's comments, coupled with his investment, were not well-received in some corners of Substack's universe. Writing in her newsletter "Qualified at the Intersection," Shari Dunn reflected on the news:

Here I am, building a community on a platform whose financial backing includes a man actively hostile to the very liberation my work is rooted in. That revelation has raised deep moral questions for me. Where can we go? If I leave, I don't have the kind of massive audience that would follow me elsewhere. I would be writing into the void. And yet, staying feels complicated, too.

As I've written before, Substack needs to reckon with its place in the media landscape — perhaps starting with those funding its foundation.

Telltale Charts

Every few months, my mom begs my dad to ditch Samsung and join the iPhone cult. He's the lone green bubble in our family group chat, and getting his photos added to our Apple albums is a logistical nightmare. But the funny thing is, his Android is actually better at taking pictures than all of our iPhones. Really, he should be the one begging us to hop on the Samsung bandwagon, but, as Dave Lee says, "the consumer lock-in of iOS and the Apple product range is just too great." Yet Apple's iPhone business is showing signs of weakness: Global revenue growth was down 1.9% in the last quarter and people are holding off on upgrades. Dave thinks Tim Cook's best bet going forward is using Samsung's Fold 7 — but of course! — as a blueprint for a foldable iPhone. If he fails, who knows! Maybe my mom will eat her words once and for all.

"If it works, it could change the world," is probably a sentence that's been muttered about many forgotten inventions throughout history — remember those alarm clocks! — but Google is hoping to buck that trend with its bet on fusion energy. There's just one problem: "Its supplier lacks a power plant, has produced no energy to date, and may never do so on commercially viable terms," writes the Bloomberg editorial board. "Few technologies have been quite so hyped for so long: Fusion, the old joke goes, is 30 years in the future and always will be … Yet Google's agreement, like a similar deal that Microsoft Corp. signed with Helion Energy in 2023, is a hopeful sign."

Further Reading

President Trump is attempting a massive power grab in Texas and most Americans aren't aware of it. — Mary Ellen Klas

Powell is the WORST? Welcome to the great American tradition of presidents hating on the Fed. — Christine Harper

Bitcoin in your 401(k)? That's not a risk an economist would be willing to take. — Allison Schrager

The Odyssey's year-out ticket sale is exactly the kind of bold marketing Hollywood should embrace. — Jason Bailey

India's young billionaires are bucking traditional business to pursue their passions. — Andy Mukherjee

The deep-sea mining ban isn't the grand victory that environmentalists are making it out to be. — David Fickling

Germany's protest party has to learn to cooperate with the establishment. — Katja Hoyer

Sri Lanka's new president has the opportunity to help the nation come to terms with its brutal civil war. — Ruth Pollard

ICYMI

Okay, maybe meme stocks are back. No, really!

Uber's new feature lets women avoid male drivers.

The Washington Post TikTok guy is moving on.

There's a bill to protect the pope's US citizenship.

Kickers

Happy birthday, Eater and One Direction.

DOGE's old offices look apocalyptic.

Corn sweat is driving Midwest heat waves.

Passport photo glam is not TSA-friendly.

Notes: Please send triple corn cake and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected].

Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads.

Follow Us

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments

Powered by Blogger.