Orban’s crown slips

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Viktor Orban's aura of invincibility is cracking.

Hundreds of thousands joined a Pride parade through the streets of Budapest on Saturday, one of the biggest displays of public defiance of the prime minister's 15-year rule.

Then today, a poll showed the party of the former administration insider turned Orban nemesis, Peter Magyar, extended its double-digit lead over the premier's Fidesz ahead of general elections next year.

Viktor Orban at a European Council meeting in Brussels on June 26. Photographer: Simon Wohlfahrt/Bloomberg

The bête noire of the European Union mainstream, Orban has long positioned himself as Donald Trump's go-to leader on the continent, saying that he was "Trump before Trump was." His model of illiberal democracy became a case study for MAGA Republicans as they sought to remake the US.

Yet things haven't gone to plan. Orban got a rap on his knuckles from the US envoy to Budapest for being too reliant on Chinese investments. And regardless of personal ties, Hungary, especially its auto industry, will be at the receiving end of Trump's tariffs if no deal with the EU is reached by July 9.

It's all a breeding ground for domestic discontent. The weekend's march went ahead despite a government ban and the threat of steep fines for participants. Orban's targeting of the LGBTQ+ community is part of a plan to mobilize supporters before the election.

Zoltán Kovács, Hungary's international spokesman, blamed outside influence, saying the opposition was working "at Brussels' command" to organize the parade.

Orban has recovered from adversity before. But there's no escaping the fact that the show of force on the streets of Budapest was a symbol of the discontent at large.

Hungary's economy is in the doldrums amid endemic corruption that has cost it EU aid. Magyar, who was notable by his absence from the march, has focused his campaign on the cost-of-living crisis.

It's something that Orban seems unable to address, with or without Trump's help. — Piotr Skolimowski and Andras Gergely

A rainbow flag on the facade of City Hall in Budapest on Friday. Photographer: Attila Kisbenedek/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

The White House appears poised to fall short of the sweeping global trade reforms it promised to achieve during the three months Trump's country-specific tariffs were on hold. The president said he doesn't expect to extend the July 9 deadline though "I could," as he floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan's cars. Canada withdrew a digital services tax in a bid to restart talks, while India's negotiators extended their stay in Washington to try to clinch a deal and Taiwan reported "constructive progress."

President Vladimir Putin expanded the range of information covered by Russia's state secrecy law, further tightening his grip on society as his war in Ukraine continues. Ukraine said Russia fired a record 537 missiles and drones in "massive" attacks across seven regions yesterday, with air defenses repelling 475 of the strikes.

Debris outside a residential building in Odesa after a Russian drone attack Saturday. Photographer: Oleksandr Gimanov/AFP/Getty Images

Serbian police clashed with anti-government protesters after tens of thousands marched in Belgrade demanding an early election to remove President Aleksandar Vučić. The rally in the capital was the latest in months of almost daily demonstrations, triggered by a canopy collapse at a railway station in November that left 16 dead and stoked outrage over corruption and negligence in public infrastructure.

Chilean communist Jeannette Jara won the primary vote among left-wing presidential candidates after mounting a last-minute surge. Jara still faces an uphill battle to take the top job given that the current leftist administration enjoys little support and voters are fretting over crime and clandestine migration — both of which are strong points for the conservative opposition.

Jeannette Jara casts her ballot at a polling station in Santiago yesterday. Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is rushing to meet Trump's July 4 deadline for pushing through his massive tax and spending bill, but first he has to work through a list of about eight Republican senators who have expressed opposition to portions of it. The Senate will kick off a marathon voting session on dozens of amendments today, a process that can take 12 hours or more.

Elon Musk slammed the Senate's latest version of Trump's tax bill, warning that the cuts to electric vehicle and other clean-energy credits would be "incredibly destructive" to the country.

Keir Starmer is working to contain the rebellion in his Labour Party ahead of a vote tomorrow on his flagship UK welfare policy that's provoked widespread criticism and called his premiership into doubt.

Iran said it remains skeptical that a tentative US-brokered ceasefire with Israel will last, warning it's prepared to respond to any fresh aggression.

Trump said he has identified a buyer for the US operations of TikTok, the social media app owned by Chinese company ByteDance, without identifying the winning bidder, adding that a sale would be contingent on Beijing and President Xi Jinping's agreement.

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Chart of the Day

With hundreds of billions of euros in debt-financed funding available, Chancellor Friedrich Merz has a genuine window of opportunity to inject some life into Germany's stagnant economy, but it could start closing within months. Tensions are already brewing between Merz's conservatives and his Social Democrat partners, and his political capital will start being tested at the latest in March with the first of five regional elections due in 2026. The unprecedented spending splurge — focused on infrastructure and defense — has drawn keen investor interest, with the DAX setting records to become one of the best-performing stock benchmarks globally this year.

And Finally

Just a few months ago, Noetix Robotics was struggling to find a single customer for its Hobbit-sized robots. Then one of its N2 models placed second in the world's first robot half-marathon and the Beijing startup is now on track to deliver 2,000 units by the end of the year. The turnaround is emblematic of China's ambition to dominate the AI robot boom, part of Xi's drive to reduce reliance on foreign technologies.

Robots at Noetix's offices in Beijing. Photographer: Na Bian/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 49 people who answered Friday's quiz and congratulations to Chris Bromby, who was first to correctly identify Australia and New Zealand as the neighboring countries with the most per-capita users of cocaine worldwide.