"Vladimir, STOP!" is not how you end a war

Trump just pulled a "Piper, noooo."

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Today's Agenda A peace deal could go south fast. The "Trump Put" at long last? Rethinking the draft broadcast. History repeats the past. Vladimir, STOP! When President Donald Trump entered office, he called himself a global "peacemaker and unifier." Is the peace and unity in the room with us? Because three months later, Hal Brands says (free read) "his presidency is consumed by conflict." In one such conflict, the war in Ukraine, Trump has reached a stage of desperation I don't think this country — or the world, for that matter — has ever seen: Is the foreign policy equivalent of "Piper, noooo" part of his genius plan to end the war? If so, it's embarrassing. Trump claims Russia's strikes Thursday were "very bad timing." But, just curious, what do we think good timing is in his book? Last time I checked, there's never a good time to end lives. And begging a depraved foreign leader to cool his jets — pretty please — so that everyone can gather 'round the campfire to make s'mores in a social media post is not a winning strategy. Unless the president counts memes as victory: To actually end the war, there needs to be a genuine effort to create peace in the longer term. But Marc Champion says the US-sponsored deal that's been swirling around diplomatic circles leaves a lot to be desired. Here's the long and the short of it: What Russia Gets The comfort of knowing that Ukraine will never join NATO A guarantee that the US will recognize Crimea as Russia's territory Control over most of the Ukrainian lands seized by Putin's armies Lifted economic sanctions by the US What the US Gets Ukraine's mineral resources The ability to dictate major infrastructure projects Money (50% of the revenue from both things listed above) The keys to Ukraine's massive Enerhodar nuclear plant What Ukraine Gets Minor territorial swaps Permission to access its own rivers Hmmm. Curious, isn't it, how Russia and the US get four bullet points and Ukraine only gets two? Doesn't seem fair to me. Even so, "the issue here isn't that these are all conditions Ukraine can't accept," Marc writes. "Zelenskiy and other officials in Kyiv understand this war will end with its de facto acceptance of Russian control over swathes of Ukrainian territory. Most European leaders also understand Ukraine won't be joining NATO. And a deal committing the US to involvement in growing Ukraine's postwar mining industries and infrastructure would be great, if that also included a commitment to invest." The problem, in Marc's eyes, is that this deal is not built to last. They're spoon-feeding Putin all these core concessions, and for what? A ceasefire that could very well implode in 90 days? For the deal "to enable the building of a better Ukraine, and not just a stronger Russia," he says it must include defined security guarantees and give Ukraine the right to use military force. "The way Trump and his envoys have approached a peace settlement in Ukraine seems inexplicable, until one understands that the priority isn't lasting peace and sovereignty for Kyiv, or stable borders in Europe, but a reset of US-Russia relations." "Vladimir, STOP!" is an odd way to hit the reset button, but what do I know. Read the whole thing free. Bonus Diplomacy Reading: With the US resembling Russia and China as an imperialist bully, more countries should emulate Vietnam. — Andreas Kluth Good Stock Bad Stock Pop quiz time! What was the one and only stock in the S&P 500 that rose between the market peak in 2007 and the low in 2009? To give you a bit of time to make a guess, here's a random yet adorable image of cats hugging each other that you'll need to scroll past to see the answer: If you guessed Walmart, you'd be correct. During periods of financial turmoil, John Authers says shoppers look for low prices, and that's Walmart's entire schtick. "When it is beating the overall market, it's a clear sign that investors don't think much of the economy," he writes. Judging by Walmart's recent performance, things are getting ugly. Its stock just hit an all-time high relative to the market, and the company is ramping up discounts to drum up even more demand. When Walmart does well, everyone else — especially Big Tech — does poorly: But even before Trump's "Liberation Day" sent analyst projections in the garbage can, Dave Lee says tech's outlook was cloudy because of AI. "While the companies can't offer clarity on tariffs, investors will want firmer direction on the more practical business of breaking ground on new data centers to accommodate the growth of artificial intelligence," he writes.

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Draft Day You really gotta hand it to ESPN. The network managed to turn a mind-numbingly boring sporting event — the NFL Draft — into a cultural phenomenon that attracts more eyeballs than the US Open, college football and the Stanley Cup. "Before ESPN's partnership with the league, it was unlikely that a sports draft would become a major media spectacle," Adam Minter writes. "The very idea is dull: a team selects a player, several minutes pass, and another team selects a player. Repeat." But ESPN saw dollar signs where others saw paint drying for eight hours. When the broadcaster first streamed the draft in 1980, they set the bar high for modern sports television. They pioneered player highlights. They filled dead space with graphics and talking heads. And they launched mock drafts that Adam says "have become an industry unto themselves." "From the perspective of the NFL, the draft — combined with America's long-standing love of college football — gives the league 365 days of potential content. What was once only a fall sports league has been transformed into an ongoing conversation that keeps fans and media engaged all year long," he writes. But 45 years later, most of the draft chatter isn't coming from cable TV, it's on the Instagram Story of Joe Schoen's son. Adam can't be the only one who thinks it's time for an upgrade. With ESPN's contract up this year, he says it's the perfect moment to rethink Draft Day so that it can stay relevant to younger viewers for years to come. Telltale Charts Every other day it seems like there's another depressing story about someone being wrongfully deported from the US. And Erika D. Smith says polling shows sizable minorities of MAGA-friendly Americans are totally fine with the lack of due process. But there's reason to believe they may end up regretting their stance: "Japanese incarceration during WWII was even more popular than today's anti-immigrant policies. But views can change," she writes. "Today, only 26% of Americans say it was right to lock up non-citizens; 17% to imprison citizens." A lot of people who are on their employers' insurance — myself included — might not realize they're cashing in on Obamacare. "In the 15 years since the ACA was signed into law, we've come to take for granted the many services that insurers cover free. According to KFF, some 100 million privately insured adults used one of the more than 30 preventive services insurers are required to cover," writes Lisa Jarvis. That all could change under Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr, she warns. Further Reading This Nebraska Republican could be the new John McCain. — Patricia Lopez Kashmir's terror attack exposes a challenge for India's Modi. — Karishma Vaswani New Zealand's central bank is on thin ice with the government. — Daniel Moss Government meddling with UniCredit does Italy a disservice. — Paul J. Davies Trump's war on "woke" universities will harm US innovation. — Adrian Wooldridge Tesla's earnings guidance wasn't worth much in the first place. — Liam Denning Active fund management isn't dead yet, just look at Nomura. — Chris Hughes Electrifying everything comes with plenty of risks of its own. — Javier Blas ICYMI The Trump store is selling Trump 2028 hats. Huge legal drama over NYC congestion pricing. The Mexican government wants to ban Kristi Noem's ads. Trump is meeting with the Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg. The airlines are already in a recession, maybe. Kickers You're eating chocolate biscuits all wrong. The disco fry menu invasion is nigh. The profound experience of seeing a new color. Why so many men refuse to wear shorts. Pope candidates as Conclave characters. Notes: Please send disco fries and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected]. Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Threads.

Notes: Please send something and feedback to Jessica Karl at [email protected]. Sign up here and find us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads.

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