iPhone 16 incoming

Apple iPhone 15 Pro models. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

Since Apple Inc. revamped its entire iPhone line in 2020 rolling out new designs and 5G connections the device hasn't had a major overhaul. And that won't change when the iPhone 16 lineup arrives later this year.

Though last year's iPhone 15 Pro came with a titanium shell for the first time, it was basically the same phone as its predecessor. And while the iPhone 14 Pro added the Dynamic Island hailed as a new interface it wasn't really a major change from the 13 Pro, which in turn was only a minor tweak from the 12.

This year's iPhone 16 line will fit that pattern. The four new models likely to be called the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max won't look meaningfully different than current versions or add major new features.

Here's what to expect:
The big marketing point will be Apple Intelligence, the company's new suite of AI capabilities. All the iPhone 16 models will run Apple Intelligence, but it will also work with the iPhone 15 Pro versions. It's hard to tell how much of an enticement this will be. As I said last week, I don't think these features alone will be reason to upgrade.
The non-Pro versions of the iPhone 16 will add the Action button, which was already on the higher-end versions of last year's model. But Apple is rolling out a more customizable Control Center and changeable Lock Screen options in iOS 18, which may make the Action button less of an asset.
Speaking of buttons, there will be a new camera control on the right side of the phone (at least on the new Pros). It will operate like a button on a DSLR camera, allowing you to press in slightly to trigger autofocus. A harder press will take the picture. You can also swipe along the button to zoom in and out while shooting photos and videos.
Another change is probably coming only to the Pro models: slightly bigger screens. The regular Pro will move to 6.3 inches from 6.1, while the Pro Max will now approach 6.9 inches, an increase from 6.7.
As usual, the colors will be refreshed. For the Pro, expect to see the blue replaced along with a return of the popular rose gold from a few years ago. And there will be a new chip: the A18. All four models will now have 8 gigabytes of memory as well. That's the minimum needed to run Apple Intelligence.

If you have an older iPhone, these are all nice upgrades but probably not must-haves. I don't expect the new models to fuel a gold rush of purchases for Apple. And, if the latest financial guidance is any indication, the company doesn't either. It declined to give a prediction for iPhone growth in the current quarter. If Apple had expected a meaningful bump, we probably would have gotten an indication.

But next year is certain to bring a bigger shake-up to the iPhone line. As early as the beginning of 2025, Apple will launch a new iPhone SE the first upgrade to its low-end phone since 2022. This model will look like an iPhone 14, with a crisper OLED display that stretches across the full device. And you can also bet that it will have Apple Intelligence.

The current iPhone SE from 2022. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

If Apple can get the price of the new iPhone SE down to around $500, I think it could be a hot seller.

But the more important changes will appear next September with the iPhone 17. That lineup will offer a new type of smartphone what I call the "fourth iPhone model."

The main lineup has three major options: the standard iPhone, the Pro and the Pro Max. For years, Apple has been looking to find a fourth type of phone that will resonate with customers. In 2020, it attempted to do that by rolling out the iPhone 12 mini. The product was a commercial failure.

So the next logical move was going in the opposite direction. Apple got rid of the mini and came up with the iPhone 14 Plus, a larger version of its standard phone. Just like the mini, the Plus has also largely been a flop. One problem is the price: The iPhone 15 Plus is only $100 less than the more powerful iPhone 15 Pro, so many consumers figure it's worth shelling out a bit more money for the better phone.

Next year, Apple will give this fourth-model concept another try. The approach this time around: a far thinner design. The idea is to create an "Air" version of the iPhone of sorts, something that sits in between the iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro. The most apt comparison is probably to the original MacBook Air from over a decade ago, which was somewhere between the regular MacBook and MacBook Pro.

The sales pitch will probably go like this: If you want something snazzier than a standard iPhone but don't really need the performance, screen size or cameras of a Pro model you can get something that looks much cooler while still having the specifications of a regular iPhone.

The combination of the new SE and a slim model could be good enough to return the iPhone to meaningful growth in 2025. I think the Air-style phone will at least be a bigger hit than the mini and Plus devices of recent years.

But even this slimmer entry will just be a step toward something better. Eventually, Apple will want to squeeze the power of a Pro model into this smaller design. That feat will likely take until at least 2027 to achieve. I also expect Apple to produce a foldable iPhone, but all signs internally point to a foldable iPad being just as big of a priority. That means we may still see a tablet version come sooner.

In any case, those options are still years away. In the shorter term, consumers will be facing a familiar sight: an iPhone that looks pretty similar to last year's model.